Gartner also predicts Windows Phone will beat iPhone sales by 2015

By Tom Warren, on 7th Apr 11 4:52 pm with 9 Comments

Research company Gartner released its latest smartphone forecasts on Thursday.

Gartner predicts that worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57% increase from 2010. Android is expected to further hold its lead and account for 49% market share by 2012. Microsoft’s Windows Phone is expected to increase to 10.8% by 2012, up from 4.2% in 2010.

The surprise figure from Gartner is the revelation that it too predicts Microsoft will cement a strong second place market share by 2015. IDC previously predicted that Windows Phone will account for over 20% market share in 2015, above Apple’s estimated 15%. Gartner’s figures follow a similar approach. Gartner says Microsoft’s Windows Phone will account for 19.5% market share by 2015, above Apple’s 17.2%. Windows Phone will also account for 215 million worldwide shipments by 2015.

The research firm’s estimates are based solely on Microsoft’s Nokia partnership. “Gartner predicts that Nokia will push Windows Phone well into the mid-tier of its portfolio by the end of 2012, driving the platform to be the third largest in the worldwide ranking by 2013,” says the firm. “Gartner has revised its forecast of Windows Phone’s market share upward, solely by virtue of Microsoft’s alliance with Nokia.”

The predictions mirror IDC’s early estimates, revealed in late March. Nokia said recently that it plans to ship Windows Phone branded devices to developers when they are available later this year. Nokia is currently engineering Windows Phone devices and is expected to wait for “Mango”, the next version of Windows Phone, until it unveils them later this year. “Mango”, the codename for what will likely be named Windows Phone 7.5, is currently in the early beta stages at Microsoft. The software giant revealed a number of new features in February that will ship as part of its Windows Phone point release later this year. Nokia is reportedly waiting for multitasking, IE9 mobile and others before it releases its first Windows Phone device.

Gartner April 2011 smartphone estimates

  • Tom Servo

    I wonder how much of these predictions by research companies are behind the scenes deals and favors.

    Not that I don’t want WP7 to succeed, but still…

    • Joe05

      If it is then it must be one of many done in Apple and Googles favor, I’ve never seen such lax criticism and adulation bestowed on those two companies .

      That being said, I think that IDC and Gartner are right, Nokia has massive reach and an extensive distribution network .

      Windows phone will be everywhere by 2015.

  • oolong2

    Windows Phone is a worldwide phone and the partnership with Nokia solidifies that.

    iPhone is primarily a US phone, and it probably will always be a US phone.

    The reason why WP7 will eventially overtake the iPhone worldwide is because Microsoft plays nice with others. They know how to partner.

    I could easily see how WP7 could remain 3rd place in the US but second place worldwide.

    • sarkis chamelian

      Erm, WP7, dont you mean Windows Phone. by the time you hit 2015 microsoft will be on WP9 or WP10 ;)

      I would like microsoft to dominate haha, but they need to allow us to put custom ringtones, and drag and drop music on the phone, rather then using the awful ZUNE software….I cant stand the thing, I escaped iTunes and now this…. :(

    • Henkie

      Primarily a US phone? Are you living under a rock? Allmost all countries of the world are selling the iPhone. To be honest; I live in the Netherlands and I’ve never seen a Windows Phone here…

  • Just for the record

    Well most predictions only favor and back investment portfolios to boost their margins

  • Major Plonquer

    This study doesn’t seem to take into consideration a growing problem in Asian markets – carriers don’t like Android and every handset manufacturer will be only too happy to tell you that Android is a short-term product. Asian handset manufacturers account for over 50% of the world’s output and Asian carriers about 65% of the world’s traffic. Neither are happy that the only software choices are American (6% of the world’s handsets manufactured). They are also extremely worried about the 47 IP lawsuits filed against Android for which handset manufacturers and carriers may be liable, not Google. As soon as there is an alternative to Android (MeeGo?) you should be careful not to stand too near the door or you’ll get trampled in the rush.

  • Blake

    We need phones without mandatory dataplans.

  • Fmh

    MS will sell 215 million WP7 in 2015. Thats wow!