IDC: Windows Phone 7 to beat iPhone sales by 2015, cement #2 position

By Tom Warren, on 29th Mar 11 3:18 pm with 10 Comments

Research analysts IDC predict Windows Phone 7 worldwide sales will beat iOS devices by 2015.

IDC claims the worldwide smartphone market will grow 49.2% in 2011 as more consumers and businesses turn to smartphones. “Smartphone vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011 compared to the 303.4 million units shipped in 2010,” says IDC.

“Overall market growth in 2010 was exceptional,” said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Last year’s high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010.” IDC also believes Android will take over as the leading worldwide smartphone OS in 2011 after taking the number 2 position in 2010.

Perhaps the biggest news is that by 2015, IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will account for over 20% market share, above iOS’s 15%. The prediction is based on the significant implications of the recent Nokia and Microsoft deal. “Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences,” added Llamas. “The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”

Nokia said recently that it plans to ship Windows Phone branded devices to developers when they are available later this year. Nokia is currently engineering Windows Phone devices and is expected to wait for “Mango”, the next version of Windows Phone, until it unveils them later this year. “Mango”, the codename for what will likely be named Windows Phone 7.5, is currently in the early beta stages at Microsoft. The software giant revealed a number of new features in February that will ship as part of its Windows Phone point release later this year. Nokia is reportedly waiting for multitasking, IE9 mobile and others before it releases its first Windows Phone device.

IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, March 2011

  • GP007

    Taking the volume that Nokia brings to the tablet plus the other WP7 OEMs adding in their own devices it just makes sense to me. I see it as pretty much a given that with enough devices on the market and good marketing that WP should be able to pass iOS/iPhone in time. It’s the only reason android is where it is today, the sheer volume of devices that keep hitting the market. It’s not that hard to out sell the iPhone that gets 1 new model a year (unless apple tries to release more models but I doubt it) compared to a platform that could ship on 20-30 devices in the same year.

    • Manish

      Right and I agree. I think future of Nokia + MS is bright it is now seconded by another technical research firm after OVM. The deal between though highly criticed is really smart move.

  • http://twitter.com/s_a_r_k_i_s sarkis chamelian

    I think the IDC need to correct that statement or title….it should be “Windows Phone” to take over by 2015, “Windows Phone” stays the same, the number will change….seriously, next is Windows Phone 8 , and then Windows Phone 9. IDC should know this….oh well.

  • David G.

    They would sell one more WP (to me) if they would just put the thing on Verizon already!

    • http://twitter.com/IgnatiusAwesome Sonny Williams

      The more Verizon’s CEO opens his mouth, the less I like him.

    • M_Lyons10

      Yeah, I agree. Where is WP7 on Verizon already??

  • David G.

    They would sell one more WP (to me) if they would just put the thing on Verizon already!

  • http://twitter.com/oolong2 oolong2

    I think Microsoft + Nokia + Enterprise support will easily put WP7 in the #2 spot over the next few years.

    However Microsoft needs to start supporting business like yesterday. When I say support business I don’t mean office apps, I mean corporate networks, secure corporate management, custom apps, etc.

    I’m surprised they haven’t already, because they are *the* company perfectly positioned to do so. Once people see seamless integration with windows server products, projections for windows phone will skyrocket.

    Collaborating with those jail breakers might yeild something promising for the enterprise as well. A “secured jail break” is essentially the same thing a business needs.

    Maybe they’ll announce something at Mix.

  • http://www.justmobilephone.com/snowbreeze-2-4b1-sn0wbreeze-2-4-beta-1-jailbreak-ios-4-3-1/ JailBreak 4.3.1

    Hmmm , good post

  • Anonymous

    hope so :)