Windows Phone 7 may reach third place market share of 17% by 2016

By Tom Warren, on 28th Mar 11 6:05 pm with 10 Comments

Windows Phone 7 may reach a total of 17% market share by 2016 according to new research.

Market research analysts Ovum published a report on Friday claiming that the smartphone market will double in size by 2016. “Android will drive the growth and will emerge as the dominant platform, dramatically outperforming Apple with a massive 20.5 per cent lead on market share,” says the independent telecoms analyst.

Ovum predicts Apple’s iOS will only account for 17.5% in 2016. “We will see dramatic shifts in dominance for smartphone software platforms,” says Ovum, allowing Microsoft to take third position. “Just behind Apple iOS will be Windows Phone, with 17.2% market share by 2016, followed by BlackBerry OS, with 16.5%. Ovum principal analyst Adam Leach claims that the partnership between Nokia and Microsoft “has redrawn the smartphone market.”

The deal will result in a significant reduction of Symbian-based handsets. “For Microsoft the deal provides a committed handset partner that has the potential to make Windows Phone a mainstream smartphone platform. The risk to Microsoft is that other handset makers may choose not to compete with Nokia and may turn their backs on Windows Phone.”

Nokia said recently that it plans to ship Windows Phone branded devices to developers when they are available later this year. Nokia is currently engineering Windows Phone devices and is expected to wait for “Mango”, the next version of Windows Phone, until it unveils them later this year. “Mango”, the codename for what will likely be named Windows Phone 7.5, is currently in the early beta stages at Microsoft. The software giant revealed a number of new features in February that will ship as part of its Windows Phone point release later this year. Nokia is reportedly waiting for multitasking, IE9 mobile and others before it releases its first Windows Phone device.

  • Wourelia

    Stupid Android, obviously it will dominate when you give it away for free…

    • GP007

      Not really just that, it’s because it’s on the majority of new phones sold. If you have 50 phones with Android, 10 with WP7 and then your iPhone for that year sold it’s logical that Android will have most of the market because it has most of the volume.

      Part of the deal and reason for the MS and Nokia move is to make up that difference in volume that Nokia can bring, and other service related bits that MS needs.

      If the current WP OEMs can release another 10 or so devices later this year and when Nokia kicks in and can pump out a nice steady stream of new devices every 4-6 months as well then we’ll see where WP can go.

    • Anonymous

      Well it’s not really sure that you’ll be able to do that in the future. HTC is already paying MSFT for every Android phone they make, and they’re going after other companies, like Android golden boy Motorola, aswell.

  • Anonymous

    That actually sounds low with Nokia on-board.

    17.2% market share of 653 million is about 112 million, Nokia on its own shipped more than 100 million smartphones in 2010

  • Chinonso

    All I can say is that will have to wait and see.

  • ThePro

    Seriously, 2016? I’m sure WP8 would be out by then.

  • Tim Acheson

    If the upward trend is steep enough, WP7 could be number one or two in a similar timescale.

  • Josè Daniel

    At least I’m glad iPhone market share will dramatically drop!

  • oolong2

    I like how “analysts” make “predictions” based on what’s happening now.

    I bet 3 years ago those same analyst thought Android would be in third place.

  • Jcb_seattle

    I find it amusing how analysts look 5 years into the future (a very long time in technology) and come up with these very precise numbers: 17.2, 20.5 – this feels very much like fake precision to me …